In the shadow of October 15th–by some measures, the most volatile day in the history of Treasury trading–everything that’s followed has been exceedingly tame by comparison. The correction leading back toward slightly higher rates was mechanical and non-threatening. And now November is slipping away with mortgage rates having held 4.0% the entire time and 10yr yields staying in the 2.3’s.
Today’s session never had much of a chance to break the bigger-picture mold. To end the week on anything other than a sideways note, we would have needed to see such a big rally or sell-off that it wouldn’t have made any sense in the current context.
Overnight headlines from Draghi helped a bit and China’s rate cut hurt a bit, but bonds ground to stronger levels very slowly. It’s tempting to say that suggests a positive theme, but we ended up seeing just as much resistance to gains at 2.31% (10yr yields) as we saw support for losses at 2.36%. That’s been the entire range this week since 9am Monday.