From a volume standpoint, today was only a bit more than half as big as the highest recent days. And you’d have to go back to April to find anything lower–at least as far as the bond market is concerned. The same goes for the trading range, with an exceptionally narrow 2.394-2.428% in 10yr yields.
Treasuries ultimately lost ground despite starting out very close to unchanged. Blame a general absence of any fresh trade war drama. There were even a few conciliatory headlines on both sides of the Pacific (nothing ground-breaking, but better than the contentiousness seen over the past week and a half). MBS managed to escape without losing ground simply due to their recently pronounced tendency to perform a smaller version of the moves seen from Treasuries. In other words, Treasuries reversed gains and moved into modestly weaker territory whereas MBS merely arrested gains.
There were no major economic reports on tap in the US although there was some small reaction to European econ data overnight. The only obvious benefactor was weak economic sentiment in Germany.
The data landscape for the US changes significantly tomorrow with Retail Sales leading the charge at 8:30am. That’s the week’s headliner, but it will be joined by several other reports throughout the morning that could also have an impact–especially if they argue a similar point to Retail Sales.