MBS RECAP: Data Overlooked as Traders Gear Up For Holiday Breaks

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There were several economic reports at 8:30am this morning–names that have some track record of moving markets like GDP, Jobless Claims, and the Philly Fed Index.  Indeed, in some bygone era, this morning’s combination of headlines might have moved the needle, but we’re living in a brave new world where most of the metrics we use to measure the economy tell us things are humming right along while inflation and productivity remain mysteriously depressed.

With all of the above in mind, the only big market movers on the econ data front are the top tier inflation reports (chiefly, CPI, but to a lesser extent, tomorrow’s PCE data as well).  Today’s data fell on deaf ears, both in terms of volume and volatility.  That’s victory though, with respect to the past 3 days.

Bonds traded a narrow, slightly stronger range throughout the day.  The trading had the look and feel of the sort of exhaustion and resignation that tends to follow abrupt corrections.  It was positive in the sense that it suggests an absence of new, dire considerations for bond markets, but negative in the sense that it suggests bond traders want 10yr yields to level-off “around 2.5%” heading into the end of the year.

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