MBS RECAP: Dovish Draghi Deftly Delivers Downbeat Message


European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi is getting very good at telling the world that the EU economy is in dire straits, but not to worry and that everything should be fine about 6 months from now.  He’s been saying that for roughly 5 years and while the internet laments the inconsistency, markets continue to respond.  

In today’s installment, Draghi mentioned that other central bankers are warming up to the idea of the European economy cooling down, and that inflation should continue to fall through September 2019.  There were other downbeat components to the speech and press conference, but despite all that, there was still the conclusion that the economic expansion would continue.  

Markets focused more on the downbeat stuff–especially European bond markets, which spilled over to the US trading session and helped Treasury yields move lower.  Tepid US inflation data stood aside for that process in the morning hours and a stronger 10yr Treasury auction helped solidify the gains in the afternoon.

Oddly enough, the Fed Minutes were net-negative for bonds, but so wholly uninspiring that the negativity was well contained inside the days preexisting rally.  10yr yields ended down more than 3bps and MBS posted a quarter point gain.

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