MBS RECAP: Employment Report Delivers Knockout Punch (The Bad Kind For Rates)


Yesterday, we noted that Jobless Claims and Mario Draghi’s press conference delivered a one-two punch to the hopes of sustaining recently improved ranges in bond markets.  Today then, was the haymaker, courtesy of a significantly stronger-than-expected Jobs report.  After tonight’s Fannie/Freddie 30yr Fixed Roll, Fannie 3.0s will be very close to 102-00!  This was the outer limit of weakness suggested in this morning’s preview.  The corresponding outer limit of 2.10% in 10yr yields was similarly approached, but 10’s managed to skid sideways near 2.05 in the afternoon.  That particular level is a bit of a predicament, technically speaking, as it is very close to the defensive ceilings seen so far in 2013.  The troublesome aspect is that the intraday price action clearly broke to new highs in clearly heavy volume, immediately following a highly anticipated event.  This intraday pop does more to suggest the continuation of the long term uptrend in rates than the end-of-day ground holding does to suggest–well…  Ground holding…  Even selling trends aren’t without their moments of respite, however, and this week’s selling trend has been so relentless that it’s historically unlikely we won’t see a moderate bounce next week (but please note, in past instances where 5 straight days of heavy selling have NOT resulted in a moderate bounce, it’s been very ugly).

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