MBS RECAP: Every Bit the Pre-Christmas Trading Day


Today created very little–if any–need to think, say, or do things that haven’t already been thought, said, or done–at least when it comes to bond trading.  The week was effectively over with yesterday’s sideways session–a fact I emphasized in this morning’s Day Ahead for the three of you tempted to continue paying attention to markets today.

The super low volume, super sideways trading wasn’t for lack of interesting economic data.  Durable Goods was weaker than expected, including the important “Cap-Ex” component.  Also in the 8:30am time slot, Core year-over-year PCE (something the Fed would like to see at 2.0%) merely met expectations of 1.5%.  Despite those relatively bond-friendly cues, there was no reaction.

Then at 10am, New Home Sales completely obliterated forecasts as well as the previous post-crisis record.  Surely, this would be enough to register a response even in “holiday light” trading.  Alas, it was not (no objection, considering it would have pushed rates higher if there was a reaction).  Finally, Consumer Sentiment came out fairly close to forecast, but with inflation expectations still historically low.  Bond buyers weren’t any more interested in that data than sellers in the New Home Sales data.

Volumes were in line with the lowest of the year (day after Thanksgiving) and volatility was even lighter.  Real trading will pick back up in January, but we’ll still be watching and reporting on any relevant developments next week.  Note: markets are closed on Monday for Christmas.  

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