Bond markets continue to put on a clinic in terms of avoiding anything meaningful or exciting. 3pm yields in 10yr Treasuries haven’t varied by more than 2.7bps all week. Additionally, they were almost perfectly in line with Mon-Wed of last week. That just leaves Thursday (ECB) and Friday (NFP) of last week as offering a zig and zag of volatility against an otherwise almost perfectly-flat backdrop.
A shift in the technical momentum for bonds suggested this morning’s data could have elicited more of a reaction. While it’s true that we did, in fact get the positive momentum we were looking for, there wasn’t much conviction behind it. Rather than respond to the data, markets were just as keen to take cues from short-covering and corporate debt-related tradeflows.
For whatever positivity there was, MBS and Treasuries remained well-within their recent ranges. In terms of 10yr yields, that’s basically 2.40 to 2.30, but with a focus on 2.32-2.38 for most of the domestic trading hours. With that in mind, heading out the door at 2.32 is one of the better alternatives. MBS are similarly at their best levels of the week (Monday’s prices were higher in the morning, but those were November coupons).