MBS RECAP: In Shocking Twist of Fate, Bonds Remain Range-Bound

News

I apologize for tricking you with the title.  The “shocking” part was unabashed sarcasm.  It’s not that anyone here is clairvoyant.  Certainly, we never have any assurance of market movement that takes place in the future.  But with the benefit of just a bit of hindsight, it would be fair to say that certain market movements are unsurprising. 

At the present moment, it would continue to be unsurprising for bond markets to trade in a narrow range.  Whether yields continue holding inside the exact same pattern of consolidation seen in the chart, I cannot say, but at the very least, it should be close.  Incidentally, the only reason to doubt the continuance of the current trend is that it’s become so narrow as to be easily broken by a fairly average day of market movement.)

2016-8-22 Recap

If it isn’t clear by now, today was inconsequential.  Taken together with Friday, markets may as well have enjoyed a 4-day weekend.  We will get some economic data tomorrow and the start of the Treasury auction cycle, but they will be hard-pressed to cause legitimate momentum in this summertime market paralysis.  Traders who aren’t on vacation are still waiting for Yellen on Friday–only some of them “anxiously.” 

Leave a Reply