Remember when 10yr yields spiked from roughly 2.31% to roughly 2.41% in the blink of an eye last Wednesday? That was the day before Thanksgiving, which is typically susceptible to distortions due to lower market participation. Those distortions most often take the form of a mild to moderate move that is subsequently erased–at least partially–when traders get back to business the following week.
This time around, the move was far from moderate. As such, we would have been well within our right to wonder just how much we’d get back from Wednesday’s sell-off. As it happens, we got all of it–both for Treasuries and MBS. Both are now operating in the same ranges from early last week, leaving the Wed/Fri drama (red rectangle below) to look like a temporary diversion.
Although MBS had to work to get back into the range, Treasuries were essentially there right from the start of the overnight session. Some of the positivity can be chalked up to month-end bond buyers seeing advantageous entry points (i.e. lower bond prices) thanks to last week’s sell-off. This goes hand in hand with the asset-allocation trading (sell stocks, buy bonds) that also looked to be in play today (i.e. biggest red day for stocks and biggest green day for bonds since the election).