MBS RECAP: Mid-Day Volatility False-Alarm; Back to Sleep for Markets


With limited interruptions, bond markets have been sleepwalking since most of the summer.  While that has afforded them some measure of forward progress, it’s been slow going, and far from coherent.

Today was no exception as a series of events that would have historically motivated more of a change, instead leave trading levels very much in line with yesterday’s latest levels.  They also happen to be about mid range for the week.

As for the events that swung and missed, there were headlines out of Ukraine and of course Fed Chair Yellen’s Jackson Hole Speech.  But even as early as this afternoon, the day’s biggest market mover was already revealed to be one big trade.  That’s a slap in the face to the normal connection between fundamental data and market movement.  In other words, domestic bond markets are simply on cruise control–preferring to follow the leaders of the herd rather than observe the risks and opportunities around them. 

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