MBS RECAP: Mixed Signals in Jobs Data Forces Bonds to Punt


The tale of two ranges continued in grand fashion overnight as 10yr yields made it all the way to the top of the lower, better range seen since the March 20th Fed announcement.  Granted, they were already closing in on those levels by yesterday, but fresh US/China trade headlines were good for another few bps of higher yields.

Arriving at the crossroads between ranges carries a certain amount of significance all on its own, but that significance was amplified by the fact that it was NFP Friday.  Point being: NFP always has the power to cause bigger-than-average movement.  If that movement happened right at a range boundary, it would carry a strong technical signal in favor of the prevailing range.

As it happened, however, neither range prevailed.  10yr yields finally made up their mind after a mixed initial reaction and eased slightly lower, but the gains weren’t big enough to declare a winner.  As to the rationale for indecision, it can be traced to mixed signals from the jobs data (covered in much greater detail in the MBS Huddle).

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