Looked at under a microscope, there was a fair amount of intraday volatility this morning. Treasury yields fell overnight, reaching the best levels in 3 sessions, but then abruptly sold-off soon after domestic trading began.
The bulk of the selling was close enough to the CME open that we could chalk the move up to a few big trades at the start of the day/week. We could also consider the roll-out of a corporate bond deal just before the selling. Finally, stocks were fairly well-correlated with bond yields today, and stocks had been rising steadily as bond yields moved higher at the beginning of European trading hours.
Or we could just throw all of that out the window and focus on the fact that bond markets did what they needed to do in order to remain in the center of their broader, consolidative range (discussed in the Day Ahead). Even then, we can’t read too much into any of this week’s movement in bond markets as Thanksgiving week is historically such a wild card. No matter what, we’ll be waiting for headlines to start coming out of Congress (when they get back to work on the tax bills next week) before getting confirmation on the next move away from the recent sideways range.