MBS RECAP: Modest Reactions to Econ Data as Bonds Wait For Bigger News

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Somehow, the bond market managed to end the week at 2.084% (10yr yield) which is exactly where it ended last week.  In all my years of market-watching, I’ve never seen a sharp weekly (like the one we just had in late May) at the end of a sharp multi-month rally give way to 2 straight weeks of fairly flat trading in bonds.  To say that this raises the risk of a very big breakout very soon would be an understatement.  

Today’s data was no help in sussing out the direction of such a breakout.  Strongly positive revisions to last month’s Retail Sales numbers put only modest pressure on bonds early this morning.  A huge drop in consumers’ 5yr inflation expectations pushed back in the other direction by about as much at 10am.  The rest of the day was spent moving perfectly sideways.

When it comes to looking to the future in anticipation of the catalyst for a range breakout, next Wednesday’s Fed announcement is probably the only game in town–at least when it comes to market movers that are scheduled in advance.  If that doesn’t do the trick, we’ll move on to discuss the G20 summit (trade war stuff) and then the first week of data in July (was that weak NFP reading a fluke?).

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