MBS RECAP: Much Weaker After Data, but Still in Same Old Range

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Granted, we might wake up next Tuesday (markets are closed Monday) to find that bonds are quickly breaking out of the recent range.  But as for this week, the 2.34%-2.42% range in 10yr yields remained intact. 

There were several solid attempts made to break below 2.34%, but none of them stuck.  Technicians are most interested in the 3pm CME close as a marking time for long-term charts, and we were never below 2.34% at 3pm. 

Then today, rates shot right up to the higher side of the range following this morning’s data, effectively putting an exclamation point on the rejection of a 2.34% breakout.  At issue was the fact that several inflation metrics were stronger than expected.  Retail Sales probably took the lion’s share of the blame, with the thought being that traders were prepared for it to come in weaker than the forecast suggested. 

Whatever the allocation of blame, the selling was quick, and it ended just after 10am.  Rates recovered until 3om, but never made it back to positive territory.  They’ve been drifting higher after hours, with 10yr yields near 2.40%.  Fannie 3.5s are heading out 10/32nds weaker (at lows, it was 14/32nds) at 102-17.

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