This week’s big to-do had been and continues to be tomorrow’s Fed announcement, press conference, and updated forecasts. The Fed’s European counterpart threw a bit of a curve ball today as Mario Draghi unleashed a barrage of bond-friendly comments overnight with the gist being the essential guarantee of further easing from the ECB.
Unsurprisingly, bonds enjoyed Draghi’s little surprise. 10yr yields were pulled all the way down to 2.017% at the day’s lowest levels. They looked willing to hold in that territory as well. It wasn’t until Trump tweeted about promising trade talk developments with China that rates gave up roughly half their gains to end the day perfectly in line with the bottom of the sideways range we’ve been following (2.06% in terms of 10yr yields).
Nothing has changed with respect to the risks and opportunities presented by tomorrow’s Fed-related events. This is one of the most important Fed meetings in years as it’s the first legitimate chance for us to get a hint about a massively important shift in monetary policy (i.e. a shifting of the gears from “hiking” to “cutting”).