MBS RECAP: Paradoxical Afternoon Rally Ends 3 Day Losing Streak

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One week ago tomorrow, Treasuries fell to their lowest yields in over a year after Ukraine said it blew up part of a Russian convoy.  Until yesterday afternoon, bond markets had been exclusively focused on taking measured steps back in the other direction.  Where the selling pressure would stop, nobody knew–until today.

The selling subsided at roughly 6am this morning in pre-market trading, led by a bounce in European bond markets.  The positivity is only slightly more developed than that seen on Tuesday, but this time, it lasted all day.

It was one of those days where bond markets were simply on a mission to move soberly lower in yield.  Buyers were buying at times and in amounts that were clearly disconnected from the economic data. 

At other times, buying fell in line with data.  This was particularly interesting at 10am when both Philly Fed and Existing Home Sales came in stronger than expected.  After mere moments of selling, buyers seized the opportunity to add exposure (i.e. buy more bonds) at lower prices and longer durations (i.e. 10yr and 30yr Treasuries vs 2-5yr).  The afternoon saw more of the same after the preliminary release of the index that dictates month-end buying needs.

Perhaps markets were leveling-off ahead of tomorrow’s one and only big event: Yellen’s Jackson Hole speech.  Many investors look to this as a tone-setter for Fed policy in the coming year.

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