MBS RECAP: Perfectly Flat Day After Overnight Weakness


If you caught the Mid-Day, you’re up to speed on anything interesting that happened today. 

If you didn’t, the only interesting thing that happened today was a surprise rate cut from China’s central bank.  Combined with yesterday’s dovishness from European central bank chief Draghi, the global economic lights flickered a lumen or two brighter.  While that’s still a pretty dim bulb in the big picture, it was enough to push stocks and bond yields higher in the later overnight session. 

When domestic traders came online, they added to the selling pressure for the first 20 minutes of the day, leaving the weakest levels at 8:40am. (CME Treasury pit opens at 8:20am).  From there, bond markets did absolutely nothing for the rest of the day.  10yr yields barely cut a range wider than 1bp and Fannie 3.0 MBS stayed between 101-19 and 101-14. 

Considering the pace of the bounce back in stocks, bonds seem to be holding up every bit as well as we could expect.  Unfortunately, today’s weakness introduces additional negative technical cues heading into next week.  So it makes more sense to be cautious vs bold.

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