MBS RECAP: Post-NFP Rally Continues with Help From Stocks


Today’s story isn’t much more complicated than the headline.  It’s not uncommon to see some follow-through on Monday following NFP Friday if the latter caused a big move.  That said, we didn’t have that sort of rally right from the beginning of the day today.

It was only on the approach to the 930am stock market open that bonds perked up and began digging in to positive territory.  After stocks opened and moved weaker, bonds jumped on board and followed the same ebbs and flows.  The small improvement received additional momentum from short-covering (traders who had been betting on higher rates being forced to cover their short position by buying bonds).

There was no significant data and no sensational headlines.  That continues to be the case tomorrow, though the Treasury Auction cycle debuts for the week with 3yr Notes at 1pm.  We generally don’t expect too much market movement from that.  Tradeflows and the stock lever should be in control again.  3-day versions of 2-day NFP moves like this are rare. 

NOTE: tomorrow is the “roll” for 30yr Fixed MBS (Fannie and Freddie).

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