MBS RECAP: Relatively Steep Losses for Bonds; Widespread Negative Reprices


By now, today’s broken range is fairly old news.  It’s not only old news in the sense that it’s been covered today, but indeed the POTENTIAL range break (including the likelihood that it would be in an unfriendly direction) is about all we’ve been able to discuss amid the lack of other substantive data. 

In case you missed it, the gist of that discussion was that bond markets were having a very hard time breaking through resistance levels in April.  Those were marked by 10yr yields around 1.84-1.86.  The saving grace was that rates were similarly not threatening a break above support levels.  The risk was that the sources of motivation in those thin market conditions were also potentially making a negative turn.  Europe was one of the most obvious as German Bund yields moved off their most recent surge to new all-time lows.

Indeed, Bunds look to have led the charge here as yields rose from 0.06 yesterday to 0.165 today.  By comparison, the move in US Treasuries didn’t even look that out-of-place in the 2 month trend.  European weakness was met with stronger economic data domestically as Existing Home Sales trumped expectations.  Bonds continued selling after that and then just drifted moderately weaker into the afternoon.  MBS didn’t lose ground quite as aggressively as Treasuries, but most lenders ended up repricing for the worse.

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