MBS RECAP: Running Out of Ways to Say "Post-NFP Knee-Jerk."


Here it is the end of Monday and markets are still stuck on the same old thoughts and strategies that existed last week even before the NFP release.  At the time, traders were feeling like the bond rally had already shown perplexing staying power and that there was a high bar for NFP to help extend the rally.  In other words, traders were leaning toward cashing in the recent gains or looking for an entry point to bet on rates moving higher.

Friday at 10am marked that moment and nothing else important or interesting has happened since (relatively). 

The fact that traders are tuned out from economic data and other calendar events is evident in the extent to which bonds and stocks are following each other.

2015-10-5 lever

If today’s ISM Non-Manufacturing data was able to come out as weak as it did without stocks or bonds even noticing, and when stocks and bonds are trading with this much correlation, something else is going on.  At the risk of using market cliches that I normally make fun of, stocks were oversold and bonds were overbought–even if only temporarily.  Today’s movement looks like a classic reaction to an overbought/oversold condition (that’s why I make fun of these terms because they really only work in hindsight–like most predictive analysis).

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