MBS RECAP: Slowest Full Day of The Year

News

As far as full business days go (those that aren’t “early close”), today was by far and away the slowest day of the year for bond markets.  In fact, it may be the slowest day of the year, period, by the time the final volume tallies are in.

This has at least two implications.  

First, it means that today’s market movement is less consequential than a day with exceptionally high volume. In other words, no big decisions were made today.  Traders are in maintenance mode–just trying to keep things in the prevailing post-Fed range.

Second, it means–for lack of a more elegant way to put it–“whoever shows up, wins.”  That might sound a bit trite, but it applies well to these super-low-activity trading days.  A closer look at the day’s main instances of movement and volume tells the story.  The 8:20am CME open opened the floodgates (relative) for sellers and the 3pm CME close began to restore the balance.  When volume spikes are most-pronounced at the open/close, it lets us know that most of the trading going on is compulsory in nature and that news, data, and events are NOT moving markets.  

2016-12-27 close

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