MBS RECAP: Small Scale Volatility Lost in Big Picture Shuffle

In the bigger picture, we’ll look back at today’s intraday trading range and it will be completely meaningless–among the narrower days of 1st quarter of 2019.  That’s because, like yesterday, nothing interesting happened to motivate any meaningful movement.  If that’s all the more you’d like to know about today, feel free to go about your business and check back in tomorrow.  You won’t be missing much.

For those of you that noticed the intraday mini-spike in bond yields, I’m afraid I don’t have much more for you.  We discussed this in detail in MBS Live and I spent most of the Huddle video time discussing it as well.  Ultimately, there was no good case to be made for correlation with British markets, news, data, events, or the stock market (even though I saw several other analysts say otherwise.  Watch the video if you think you might agree with them). 

The best explanations involve boring things like technical stop loss levels for curve traders (i.e. trading programs with triggers based on the gap between two flavors of US Treasury Note/Bond, such as 5yr vs 30yr Treasuries).  The net effect around the noon hour was a bit of a snowball sell-off that took 10yr yields 1bp higher in 10 minutes, or 3bps higher over the course of 3 hours.  Neither milestone is overly impressive, but the weakness was notable on an otherwise boring day.

Article source: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/blog/904746.aspx

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