MBS RECAP: Tame, Abbreviated Trading Session Leaves Gains Largely Intact


Today’s headline could just as easily serve as the entire recap.  By the time we get past the fact that Durable Goods came out much weaker than expected, there really weren’t too many moving parts to today’s trading session.  

In fact, the absence of movement following the Durable Goods data was somewhat notable in itself.  Granted, this hasn’t been a reliable market mover recently as far as econ data goes, but this was a big enough miss/revision to suggest some sort of reaction.  In all likelihood, preparation for weakness in today’s data was one of the reasons for the big reaction to yesterday’s Markit Manufacturing data.  In other words, traders gave it a bit more attention than normal because it raised concerns over today’s Durable Goods report.

MBS managed to hold right in line with unchanged levels.  This allowed lenders to fully pass along the price improvements associated with yesterday’s gains.  The average lender thus found themselves right in line with the lowest levels in more than a year (but still very close to late March’s lows).  Next week’s calendar of data/events pales in comparison to the following week.  I suspect that, unless we’re treated to more unexpected headlines, the lion’s share of market movement over the next 2 weeks will follow that early June data.

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