With each passing day this week, we’re reminded that the most important events are yet to come. In fact, we may well be looking at only one significant event in the form of Friday’s Q1 GDP reading. There are a few other contenders before that but none with nearly as much street cred as the 1st GDP report for the quarter.
Incidentally, next week’s events make Friday’s GDP look like child’s play, so we can’t even be sure those GDP is the right event to look forward to!
In the meantime, it’s been a tedious and boring sideways grind to start the week. Yesterday was the “moderately bad” version of tedious while today was its foil. The net effect is trading levels that are still slightly weaker than last week’s closing levels, but well off the weakest levels.
All of today’s rally came during the domestic hours. None of it was overtly tied to any economic event or correlated market. In fact, after some analysts explained yesterday’s bond market weakness with a surge in oil prices, the same rationale was abandoned when oil continued higher today. All told, 10yr yields dropped about 2bps and Fannie 3.5 MBS picked up an eighth of a point.