MBS RECAP: Widespread Negative Reprices as Sell-Off Gets Real


10yr yields have gone from around 2 percent to 2.17% in 2 days thanks to the Fed’s sucker punch.  Mind you, this would be a lot worse if some of the market wasn’t already wondering if the Fed would take this opportunity to set the expectation for a strong possibility of a December rate hike.  Still, it left many market participants surprised, and they’ve subsequently had to get with the program in fairly short order.

In today’s case, all we know is that it wasn’t time to stop selling yet.  GDP data was a supporting player in the weakness as Final Sales came in at +3.0 vs +2.8 median forecast.  German inflation data (yeah, that matters) also surprised to the upside.  By the time Pending Home Sales flopped at 10am, bond markets were in momentum mode.  Tuning out 2nd tier data was little to ask at that point.  The selling didn’t let up until after the 1pm 7yr Treasury auction and even then, it merely flattened out.

Technicals and momentum are in full blown bear-mode.  Best bet is to respect it and plan on continuation until it gives us a clear signal that we’ve found support. 

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