While the week ahead is shorter than normal thanks to Labor day, it’s no less relevant. In fact, it’s probably quite a bit more relevant than anything we had in August for several very good reasons.
None of those reasons have anything to do with the important domestic economic data on tap. After all, that’d be silly given just how well markets have been able to ignore it in favor of European markets and geopolitical risk. That said, several of this week’s reports can’t be ruled out as market movers. That’s especially true–as always–of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls, but we also get ISM Manufacturing data on Tuesday, and Non-Manufacturing on Thursday and again on Thursday, along ADP Employment (later than normal due to short week). All of these reports can move markets, and frequently do.
Significantly more important than the US economic data is the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy announcement and press conference with ECB President Draghi. That’s because the prospects for ECB quantitative easing are driving steady, long-term bond market gains above all other factors. Markets don’t widely expect ECB QE to be announced at their meeting this Thursday morning, but traders will listen to Draghi intently for clues as to how it could take shape, when and if it eventually get’s underway.