Mortgage Rates Avoid Adding to Yesterday’s Drama

News

Mortgage rates spiked quickly yesterday, moving up to the highest levels in more than a week and adding an eighth of a percentage point (.125%) to Friday’s latest quotes.  Even on Friday, rates were already arguably in the process of correcting higher from the lowest levels in well over a year.  The speed of severity of yesterday’s spike raised concerns about a broader correction from those long-term lows.  After all, more than 80% of the improvement over the past few months was still intact.  How much more of that would we need to give up before balance was restored?

As it turns out, not any more–at least not if today is the indication.  Rates actually improved today, albeit only microscopically.  The interest rate at the top of any given loan quote would be the same as yesterday, but closing costs could be a few bucks cheaper, thus making for a slightly lower “effective rate.”

But catching a break today doesn’t mean we can rule out more upward pressure in the coming days.  Ultimately, the next move is most likely to be determined by the economic reports that come out between now and Friday morning.  This keeps volatility potential elevated between now and then, with the biggest swings reserved for mid-morning on Friday following the big jobs report.

Loan Originator Perspective

Bonds leveled off today, recouping a modest portion of yesterday’s selloff amid potential Brexit delays.  I’m not ready to pronounce a resumption of our downward rate trend, still locking loans closing within 30 days.  –Ted Rood, Senior Originator

Today’s Most Prevalent Rates

  • 30YR FIXED – 4.125-4.375%
  • FHA/VA – 4.0%
  • 15 YEAR FIXED – 3.875-4.00% 
  • 5 YEAR ARMS –  3.875-4.25% depending on the lender


Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations
 

  • Early 2019 saw a rapid reevaluation of big-picture trends in rates and in markets in general

  • The Federal Reserve has been a key player, and while they aren’t the ones pulling the global economic strings, their response to the economy has helped rates fall more quickly than they otherwise might.

  • Based on the Fed’s laundry list of concerns, their current outlook for rate hikes and economic growth, and their bond-buying policy shifts, we’ve all but certainly seen the highest rates of this economic cycle in late 2018.  
  • Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders.  The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable.  Rates appearing on this page are “effective rates” that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.

Leave a Reply