Mortgage Rates Continue Pattern of Volatility


Volatility worked agains us on Friday, but in our favor today.  After being pushed to the edge of
their recent range on Friday, Mortgage
eased back slightly lower
to begin this week. There’s been a bit
of ping-pong going on as Best-Execution vacillates between 4.125 and 4.25.

Today’s improvement brings Best-Ex
solidly down to 4.125%, but it should be noted that pricing varies quite a bit
from lender to lender right now.

Today’s Rates: 

  • BESTEXECUTION 30YR FIXED –   4.125% – lots of variation in both directions
  • FHA/VA
    3.75%.  Some higher.
    –  Mostly 3.5%.  + or – .125%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS –  low
    3% range, variations from lender to lender.

Ongoing Guidance At 4.25%
Best-Execution Levels:
you can
approach the upcoming days in one of two ways: either rates will continue
higher, and the general range of rates would be 4.25-4.75% in terms of
Best-Execution, OR we’ve hit a wall of sorts, and can either bounce lower or
hold steady.  The more days you wait to determine this, the more money
you’ll lose if the first scenario plays out and the more you’d gain if the
second scenario plays out.  If rates don’t look like they’re holding
steady or improving by the end of this week, we’d be locking everything (and
fairly close to that sentiment already, but feel it’s at least one day too soon
to say for sure).

New Guidance: Today’s improvements put us in roughly the same
situation we were in last Thursday
.   And so the same guidance essentially applies: “we
talked about being close to 4.25% and potentially locking at a loss if things
worsened today.  But now that things have improved, what do you do if you
picked up an eighth of a percent improvement in rate?”  There are two ways to approach this…  Either you cash in your gains, lock, and move
on or you float to see if you can get an extra eighth and resolve to lock if
rates rise back to 4.25% Best-Execution levels. 
There are all sorts of caveats for this (as always), including but not
limited to the fact that any mention of floating really only applies to those
scenarios who are flexible enough to run the risk of paying more closing costs,
a higher rate, or potentially losing a deal altogether.  All others shouldn’t really try to beat the
market when rates are as close as they are to all time lows.

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