Mortgage rates were flat-to-slightly-higher yet again today. Whereas that depended on the lender yesterday, today’s weakness was more universal. That’s not to say it was extreme, however. The average lender would still be quoting the same note rate as yesterday but with microscopically higher upfront costs (thus making the total cost of financing slightly higher, which is why we say “rates” rose).
Economic data and financial news headlines (2 things that tend to drive day to day volatility in rates) were fairly quiet today. It’s no surprise then, that underlying bond market movement (which directly dictates rates) was uneventful. That may well change tomorrow as investors digest the week’s first major economic data, a key informational release from the Fed, and the details of an emergency summit in the EU to determine the fate of Brexit. While the latter isn’t necessarily going to determine the direction of rates in the long term, it can definitely have a short-term impact.
Loan Originator Perspective
Bond yields dropped slightly today (rates improved), which wasn’t surprising, given the lack of meaningful economic data. Tomorrow brings CPI Inflation numbers and a 10 year Treasury auction, both of which may inform rates for better or worse. I’m still playing defense here, locking loans closing within 30 days. Feels like there’s more potential risk of higher rates than reward of lower, for me. –Ted Rood, Senior Originator
Today’s Most Prevalent Rates
- 30YR FIXED – 4.125%
- FHA/VA – 4.0%
- 15 YEAR FIXED – 3.875-4.00%
- 5 YEAR ARMS – 3.875-4.25% depending on the lender
Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations
- Early 2019 saw a rapid reevaluation of big-picture trends in rates and in markets in general
- The Federal Reserve has been a key player, and while they aren’t the ones pulling the global economic strings, their response to the economy has helped rates fall more quickly than they otherwise might.
- Based on the Fed’s laundry list of concerns, their current outlook for rate hikes and economic growth, and their bond-buying policy shifts, we’ve all but certainly seen the highest rates of this economic cycle in late 2018.
- Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are “effective rates” that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.