Mortgage Rates: Facing Resistance

Home loan borrowing costs improved slightly today but remain well
within the recent range.

CURRENT MARKET: The “Best Execution” conventional 30-year
fixed mortgage rate is still in a state of flux between 4.75% and 4.625%. Some
lenders are already quoting C30 loans at 4.625% with no origination
points.  If you are looking to move down from there or merely between the
two, you’ll be assessing the trade-offs between higher closing costs and lower
monthly payments.  This could be worth it to applicants who plan to keep
their new mortgage outstanding for long enough to breakeven on the extra
upfront costs.  On FHA/VA 30 year fixed “Best Execution” is also
a moving target roughly centered on 4.375% with adjacent rates being logical in
some scenarios. 4.50% is a no-brainer for everyone on FHA 30yr loans
though.  15 year fixed conventional loans are best priced at 3.875%. Five
year ARMs are best priced at 3.25% but the ARM market is more stratified and
there is more variation in what will be “Best-Execution” depending on
your individual scenario. 

PREVIOUS GUIDANCE:  While we continue to see a longer term rally
as a possibility, we’re wary of short term pull-backs for shorter term or
otherwise more constrained scenarios despite the strong showing made by bond
markets in the second half of today’s trading session.  As we’ve said in
the past, if you’re seeing the lower of the two Best-Ex quotes mentioned in the
Current Market section, the goal is to KEEP that rate rather than floating for
the possibility of slightly lower closing costs.

CURRENT GUIDANCE: We really
didn’t get much by way of new guidance today, having landed very much within the
boundaries we travelled this week. 
One thing is clear though, underlying bond markets have yet to break
through strong technical resistance, and until/unless they do, we
remain wary of a potential short term pull-back.  Certainly, if you are being quoted a below “Current Market” Best-Ex rate, your goal should be keeping it.  Floating remains an option for longer term rate watchers and even short-term scenarios where lenders are quoting an above “Current Market” Best-Ex rate as you’ll likely to have an opportunity to lock at that rate even if the market moves against you next week.  Reason being: it wouldn’t take a big move in the secondary market to see quotes fall another 0.125%.

 What MUST be considered BEFORE one thinks about capitalizing on a
rates rally?

   1. WHAT DO YOU NEED? Rates might not rally as much as you
want/need.
   2. WHEN DO YOU NEED IT BY? Rates might not rally as fast as you
want/need.
   3. HOW DO YOU HANDLE STRESS? Are you ready to make tough
decisions?

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*”Best Execution” is the most efficient combination of note
rate offered and points paid at closing. This note rate is determined based on
the time it takes to recover the points you paid at closing (discount) vs. the
monthly savings of permanently buying down your mortgage rate by 0.125%. 
When deciding on whether or not to pay points, the borrower must have an idea
of how long they intend to keep their mortgage. For more info, ask you
originator to explain the findings of their “breakeven analysis” on
your permanent rate buy down costs.

Important Mortgage Rate Disclaimer
: The “Best Execution” loan
pricing quotes shared above are generally seen as the more aggressive side of
the primary mortgage market. Loan originators will only be able to offer these
rates on conforming loan amounts to very well-qualified borrowers who have a
middle FICO score over 740 and enough equity in their home to qualify for a
refinance or a large enough savings to cover their down payment and closing
costs. If the terms of your loan trigger any risk-based loan level pricing
adjustments (LLPAs), your rate quote will be higher. If you do not fall into
the “perfect borrower” category, make sure you ask your loan
originator for an explanation of the characteristics that make your loan more
expensive. “No point” loan doesn’t mean “no cost” loan. The
best 30 year fixed conventional/FHA/VA mortgage rates still include closing
costs such as: third party fees + title charges + transfer and recording. Don’t
forget the fiscal frisking that comes along with the underwriting process.

Article source: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/consumer_rates/212568.aspx

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