Mortgage Rates: If You’ve Been Waiting….


Despite some volatility earlier in the day, Best-Execution mortgage rates
and borrowing costs are unchanged vs. yesterday’s offerings.

After spending
the first four months of 2011 in a narrow range, we’re still still in the midst of a
potentially significant shift lower in home loan borrowing costs .  But such shifts almost always see periods of weakness interspersed
within the larger positive trend.  If you’ve been waiting to lock a mortgage rate for a few weeks, now’s
probably going to be one of the best times to do so, at least for the
the short term. The goal is to avoid having to lock
at the apex of one of those weak points and we think today looks like an
opportunity to do just that….

CURRENT MARKET: The “Best Execution” conventional 30-year
fixed mortgage rate is 4.75%.  If you are looking to move down from there,
you’ll be assessing the trade-offs between higher closing costs and lower
monthly payments.  This could be worth it to applicants who plan on
keeping their new mortgage outstanding for long enough to break-even on the
extra upfront costs.  On FHA/VA
30 year fixed “Best Execution” is 4.50%. 
15 year fixed conventional loans are best priced at 4.000%. Five year ARMs are
best priced at 3.375% but the ARM market is more stratified and there is more
variation in what will be “Best-Execution” depending on your individual

PREVIOUS GUIDANCE:  The risk-heavy portion of the week is
underway and the “short term pull back from recent strength” seen
today continues to be a possibility through the end of the week.  The good
news for short-termers is that very little was lost today by way of
costs.  Best-Ex was unchanged. If you’re in a short term or more urgent
scenario, or otherwise can’t afford to lose any ground on COSTS (let alone the
actual RATE), we’re lock biased for that crowd at the moment.  For longer
term outlooks, especially those that don’t absolutely NEED to refinance or are
otherwise flexible in terms of time and costs, it is acceptable to float as
long as you set a stop-loss and stick to it should rates begin to rise.

CURRENT GUIDANCE:  Had bond markets not received the gift of a
stronger-than-expected Treasury Auction today, we’d likely be reporting a
moderate increase in borrowing costs today. 
Moral of the story?  This week’s
high-risk events are having immediate and significant impacts on rates.  Combine that with what continues to be nearly
the best rate offerings in over half a year and a relatively strong bias toward
locking should be in place for most “soon to close”scenarios. 
Our defensiveness about the short term does NOT rule out the broader
improvements that we’ve seen as possible for some months now.

 What MUST be considered BEFORE one thinks about capitalizing on a
rates rally?

   1. WHAT DO YOU NEED? Rates might not rally as much as you
   2. WHEN DO YOU NEED IT BY? Rates might not rally as fast as you
   3. HOW DO YOU HANDLE STRESS? Are you ready to make tough


*”Best Execution” is the most efficient combination of note
rate offered and points paid at closing. This note rate is determined based on
the time it takes to recover the points you paid at closing (discount) vs. the
monthly savings of permanently buying down your mortgage rate by 0.125%. 
When deciding on whether or not to pay points, the borrower must have an idea
of how long they intend to keep their mortgage. For more info, ask you
originator to explain the findings of their “breakeven analysis” on
your permanent rate buy down costs.

Important Mortgage Rate Disclaimer
: The “Best Execution” loan
pricing quotes shared above are generally seen as the more aggressive side of
the primary mortgage market. Loan originators will only be able to offer these
rates on conforming loan amounts to very well-qualified borrowers who have a
middle FICO score over 740 and enough equity in their home to qualify for a
refinance or a large enough savings to cover their down payment and closing
costs. If the terms of your loan trigger any risk-based loan level pricing
adjustments (LLPAs), your rate quote will be higher. If you do not fall into
the “perfect borrower” category, make sure you ask your loan
originator for an explanation of the characteristics that make your loan more
expensive. “No point” loan doesn’t mean “no cost” loan. The
best 30 year fixed conventional/FHA/VA mortgage rates still include closing
costs such as: third party fees + title charges + transfer and recording. Don’t
forget the fiscal frisking that comes along with the underwriting process.

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