Mortgage Rates: Wall Ready to Tumble

We are witnessing the second stage of a significant shift lower in home loan borrowing costs. While these secondary signs are encouraging, they are just another step in what might evolve into a sustained rally in the bond market. That second step toward toppling “The Wall” took place today as Best Execution mortgage rates benefited from continued fears that the economy is not recovering at the
pace previously thought. READ MORE

UPDATED CURRENT MARKET: The
“Best Execution” conventional 30-year fixed mortgage rate has fallen yet
again.  This time from 4.625% to 4.50%.  In some cases, 4.375% can make sense, but will involve increased closing costs.  This could be worth it to applicants who
plan to keep their new mortgage outstanding for long enough to breakeven on the
extra upfront costs.  On FHA/VA 30 year fixed “Best Execution” had
been between 4.375% and 4.25%.  Today’s
improvements put the focus solidly on 4.25%. 
15 year fixed conventional loans are now best priced at 3.75%. Five
year ARMs are best priced at 3.125% but the ARM market is more stratified and
there is more variation in what will be “Best-Execution” depending on
your individual scenario. 

PREVIOUS GUIDANCE:  The tone has been generally positive for
mortgage rates since April 11th.  We continue to entertain that
it could generally stay that way for even longer, clearly justifying longer
term floating strategies.  However, further positive progress can be slow
and short term corrections are to be expected.  That means borrowers who
are working on a shorter lock/float timeline should remain defensive of new,
lower “Best Execution” Mortgage Rate quotes. Your main goal is to protect a lower rate offer from short-term market fluctuations, especially with the high risk event on the
horizon in the form of this Friday’s Employment Situation Report.  This is
the sort of report than can either confirm the recent break lower in borrowing
costs, or send them right back to other side of the fence.

CURRENT GUIDANCE: It might
seem like it’s time to consider “The Wall” as being completely destroyed at
this point. Yes, “The Wall” is indeed teetering in its most precarious position this year.  Borrowing costs are
certainly low enough to justify that, but the most important confirmation can
only be granted by Friday’s high-risk event: The Employment Situation Report.  If that data confirms the slower than expected recovery message
that has fueled the two-month bond market rally, new improvements will be
much less tenuous.  We’d remain defensive
even as rates progress lower, preferring the “sure thing” of the best rates of
the year today versus the risk of losing them tomorrow.  That assumes either that your time frame is
limited or that rates won’t recover from any set-backs on the horizon.  Longer term and more flexible scenarios are
still justified in floating.

 What MUST be considered BEFORE one thinks about capitalizing on a
rates rally?

   1. WHAT DO YOU NEED? Rates might not rally as much as you
want/need.
   2. WHEN DO YOU NEED IT BY? Rates might not rally as fast as you
want/need.
   3. HOW DO YOU HANDLE STRESS? Are you ready to make tough
decisions?

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“Best Execution” is the most cost efficient combination of
note rate offered and points paid at closing. This note rate is determined
based on the time it takes to recover the points you paid at closing (discount)
vs. the monthly savings of permanently buying down your mortgage rate by
0.125%.  When deciding on whether or not to pay points, the borrower must
have an idea of how long they intend to keep their mortgage. For more info, ask
you originator to explain the findings of their “breakeven analysis”
on your permanent rate buy down costs.

Important Mortgage Rate Disclaimer
: The “Best Execution” loan
pricing quotes shared above are generally seen as the more aggressive side of
the primary mortgage market. Loan originators will only be able to offer these
rates on conforming loan amounts to very well-qualified borrowers who have a
middle FICO score over 740 and enough equity in their home to qualify for a
refinance or a large enough savings to cover their down payment and closing
costs. If the terms of your loan trigger any risk-based loan level pricing
adjustments (LLPAs), your rate quote will be higher. If you do not fall into the
“perfect borrower” category, make sure you ask your loan originator
for an explanation of the characteristics that make your loan more expensive.
“No point” loan doesn’t mean “no cost” loan. The best 30
year fixed conventional/FHA/VA mortgage rates still include closing costs such
as: third party fees + title charges + transfer and recording. Don’t forget the
fiscal frisking that comes along with the underwriting process.

Article source: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/consumer_rates/214018.aspx

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