Real-Time Rate Techs: 10’s Fight To Hold Support


There’s about 30 minutes left before another hourly mark is plotted on the following chart of 10yr yields.  Yes, of course 10yr yields don’t dictate mortgage rates and yes of course this is an MBS site, but we’re focusing primarily on 10’s here because they lend themselves more readily to technical analysis.  In the following hourly chart, you’ll see how the following trendline has acted as support and resistance since the beginning of the month.  A break of this trendline IS NOT necessarily a dire situation.  Reason being: it’s slope is bullish.  A break just suggests and end to short term bullish trend.

Here’s what happens when we zoom it into a tick by tick view.  The great thing about our Eikon terminals is that they keep the exact same trendline intact despite the change in the charting interval so we can see how the more microscopic movements relate to the longer term trendline we just drew.

Pretty crazy, eh?  10’s are certainly getting sideways precisely at the expected level.  Now… This could be merely to pay respect to the established trendline before selling off further or it could truly be a supportive bounce.  That will likely depend on stocks.  It’s promising for now though. 

(UPDATE 2:08pm Eastern)Here’s how the same chart looks now. Zoomed in a bit so you could see how we just got the highest number of back and forth ticks of the day on this trendline.  Can’t make this stuff up.

But “promising” in more of an intermediate term.  MBS are damaged as can be seen in the chart below, and if you haven’t already seen a reprice for the worse, you probably will.

Don’t focus too much on today’s moves though.  We continue to fear higher rates in general due to the double bump at 2% and an over-long money manager community potentially getting the pain-trade from a short-to-neutral dealer community.  Whatever the case, today is Wednesday, and more will be known about short term directionality after Jackson Hole.

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