Federal Reserve does other things besides keep overnight Fed Funds at 0% for
years at a stretch. It releases some interesting stats on mortgages that, if
you need a filler for a presentation you’re doing, might come in handy – you’ll
notice mortgage debt dropping.
I don’t think that many in the business have an awareness of how Basel III will
impact banks, and therefore mortgages and servicing, and therefore mortgage pricing for consumers.” I
tend to agree, although I am trying to alert folks about the possible
is expected to be the norm for banks around the world, which brings up the
question, “How do borrowers finance
their homes in other countries?” There is an in-depth look at this –
click on the link near the top right of this page.
Yesterday Citigroup missed estimates, reporting
disappointing earnings although net credit losses fell 40% as full-year net
income grew 6%. Citi Holdings (the bank’s operation set up to handle its toxic
debt remnants) saw its revenue fall $6.4 billion, but Citi released $1.5
billion in loan loss reserves, a 35% decrease from 2010 – nice to see.
Wells Fargo beat estimates with a 2011 net income
up 28% from 2010, helped by a release of $600 million from loan loss reserves
during the 4th quarter. Wells has tended to focus on the consumer
(as we’ve all noticed, given its 30%+ mortgage market share) and not on
investment banking as other banks have done. Wells Fargo said its bucket of
nonperforming loans in the fourth quarter declined roughly 20% from the period
a year earlier. Its loan total grew to $770 billion in 2011 from $757 billion at
the end of 2010, and profit in the
community banking division, which includes Wells Fargo’s retail branches and
mortgage business, soared 30 percent. New mortgages rose 35% to $120
billion from the prior quarter, and net interest margin, the difference between
what the bank pays for funds and what it earns on loans and securities, climbed
to 3.89% from 3.84%.
banking non-interest income stood at $2.4 billion for Q4, up $531 million from
third quarter 2011, on $120 billion in originations, compared to $89 billion in
originations in Q3. Mortgage banking non-interest income in Q4 included a $404
million provision for mortgage loan repurchase losses, compared with $390
million in the third quarter (included in net gains from mortgage loan
origination/sales activities). Net mortgage servicing rights (MSRs) results
were a $201 million gain, compared to a $607 million gain in Q3 of 2011. The
ratio of MSRs to related loans serviced for others was 76 basis points and
the average note rate on the servicing
portfolio was at 5.14 percent. Wells Fargo’s unclosed pipeline as of Dec.
31 was $72 billion, compared to $84 billion at Sept. 30, 2011.
Wells is seeing what many mortgage
banks are seeing in the FHA/VA sector.
Yes, government loan production has increased, but so have delinquencies. By
the end of the fourth quarter, $19.2 billion of these loans were more than 90 days
past due, up from $16.4 billion the previous quarter and $14.7 billion at Dec.
31, 2010. (Wells became the top FHA and VA mortgage originator in the country
after 2010 and originated more than $112 billion worth of these guaranteed
Here is an
interesting note related to Wells’ FHA update. “Rob, I have a quandary that maybe you or one of the readers can help with.
We are a small mortgage broker shop incorporated in 1991. Up until recently we
were a mini-eagle when HUD/FHA eliminated that particular category. This is the
first part of the problem. We are no longer able to track the loans we
originated. We can see the general numbers up to last year when we were no
longer able to order case numbers with our ID. The previous loans’ performance,
however, is still being tracked within the two year time frame. And here is the
issue: our compare ratio is way out of
whack. As you know the compare ration is the percentage of loans that are
delinquent compared to the total number of loans originated. The problem has two parts. First the
lenders want explanations for the loans that are being shown as in default but
we can no longer find out who they are. So there is no way to do an
explanation. Second, the compare ration is only comparing the loans upon which we
ordered the case number, so the list for the last two years is becoming smaller
and smaller every month as the loans form this year are not being added, but of
the three loans one was late last year. So my compare ratio has gone from under
100 to 100 to 150 to 200 and is now 250! Eventually, just before they are all
over 2 years old it will be over 1,000. I
can’t be the only broker that this is happening to! Multiple calls to the
FHA resource center have only ended in frustration as all they can tell me is
how to get the number. What should I do?”
that neither Wells or Citi find themselves on is the list of four Wall Street banks who will be bidding
on the $7 billion mortgage-related securities previously owned by AIG and
are due to be auctioned tomorrow by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Goldman Sachs, Barclays Capital, Bank of
America and Credit Suisse will bid on the debt, which was acquired by the
New York Fed as part of the bail-out of AIG in 2008. The auction is being
managed by BlackRock Solutions. The $7 billion is part of a $20 billion portfolio
housed in a special purpose vehicle called Maiden Lane II. If the Fed obtains a
good price, subprime debt could rally because the sale will remove a
significant amount of supply that has been hanging over the market, investors
said – prices of subprime debt fell last week as rumors of the Maiden Lane II
sale circulated among traders and investors. Stay tuned…
loans began their lives as applications, and the MBA’s study, representing 75%
of retail originations, showed that apps
were up 23% last week. Purchases were up over 10% and refi’s were up over
26% – accounting for over 82% of all applications (the highest refinance share
since October 2010).
If you want to complain about HUD loan limits, you’d better hurry. HUD has proposed eliminating maximum loan
limit appeals. Late last week HUD published a proposed rule to eliminate
the process by which interested parties may appeal the maximum allowable loan
limit for a geographic area. Noting the modern availability of
sales-transaction data at the county level, HUD states that there is no longer
a need to allow requests for alternative limits. Further, the appeals disrupt
HUD’s overall loan limit determination process, and, by eliminating appeals,
HUD will be able to release annual loan limits earlier, thereby providing more
certainty to the market. HUD also noted that, because of the availability of
transaction data, it received zero requests for appeal of the 2011 loan limits. Copy of the proposal
Have you ever wanted to see how a rating agency looks at a residential MBS? Kroll recently rated one of Redwood Trust’s
deals, and here is all the nitty-gritty.
The mortgage loans were originated by First Republic Bank (55%), PrimeLending
(19%), PHH (11%), Wintrust (3%), Flagstar (8%), Sterling Savings Bank (2%),
Cole Taylor Savings Bank (1%) and Guardhill Financial Corporation (1%).
The mortgage loans will be serviced by First Republic Bank (55%), Cenlar (19%),
PHH (11%) and Select Portfolio Servicing (15%).
news, its “Rule” appears to “have eliminated
the commentary language included in the Fed’s version which allowed appraisal
management companies (AMCs) to include the fees they have been paying
appraisers to comply with Dodd-Frank’s “customary and reasonable” appraiser fee
requirement. ASA has repeatedly stated its belief that the Fed’s interpretation
and the massive loophole it created ran contrary to the plain language and
clear intent of Dodd-Frank.” Maybe it is a deliberate decision by the Bureau to
reject the Fed’s dubious and troubling interpretation, maybe not.
Fortunately with all this, rates are doing very little. The 10-yr T-Note seems
content around 1.85%, mortgage prices did very little yesterday while Thomson-Reuters
reported that mortgage banker selling appears to have been between $1.5 and
$2.0 billion, which was partially offset by the usual Fed support. Perhaps mortgages
may struggle a bit more than they have so far this year as some investors
believe that much of the tightening in the event of QE3 has been priced in.
morning we’ve already seen the Producer Price Index for December -.1%, ex-food
energy +.3%; the -.1% is better than expected. At 9:15AM EST are
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, expected +0.5% and 78.1%
respectively, and finally at 10AM EST homebuilder sentiment is gauged with the
NAHB Index (Jan) called unchanged at 21.0. After
the PPI interest rates are basically unchanged from Tuesday’s close.
(Parental discretion advised.)
A woman and her 10 year old son were riding in a taxi in downtown USA. It was
raining and all the prostitutes were standing under the awnings.
“Mom,” said the boy, “what are all these women doing? “
“They’re waiting for their husbands to get off work,” she replies.
The taxi driver turns around and says, “Geez lady, why don’t you tell him
the truth? They’re hookers, boy! They have sex with men for money.”
The little boy’s eyes get wide and he says, “Is that true mom?”
His mother, glaring hard at the driver, answers in the affirmative.
After a few minutes, the kid asks, “Mom, what happens to the babies those
“Most of them become taxi drivers,” she said.
If you’re interested, visit my twice-a-month blog at the STRATMOR Group web
site located at www.stratmorgroup.com. The current blog discusses residential
lending and mortgage programs around the world. If you have both the time and
inclination, make a comment on what I have written, or on other comments
so that folks can learn what’s going on out there from the other readers.